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Could Ebola hit SA?

Medical staff don their protective suits.
Medical staff don their protective suits.
The current Ebola outbreak has killed nearly 700 people, mostly in the west African nations of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However,  a recent traveller who died of the disease in Lagos, Nigeria has highlighted the ease with which the disease could spread.

Lewis Brown, the information minister of Liberia was quoted as telling Reuters that "[the disease] is a major public health emergency." He said that Ebola is fierce and deadly and expressed fears that it may continue spreading.

Is South Africa at risk?

Theoretically, an outbreak anywhere on the globe, including South Africa that receives regular visitor influx from west Africa, is just a plane flight or boat or bus ride away.

These include illegal immigrants, asylum seekers, business and leasure travellers and contract workers.  

Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi has said that there is no need for South Africans to panic. He said that precautions were being taken to prevent the virus from entering the country and assured South Africans that the surveillance activities in place were extremely effective.

The Head of Medical Virology at the University of Stellenbosch, Professor Wolfgang Preiser told the daily Maverickthat the most likely scenario is when better-off people in the area come to South Africa for treatment - similar to the Gabon case in 1996.

The 1996 case of Ebola in South Africa

Dr Mark Gendreau who specialises in aviation medicine at Lahey Medical Centre in Peabody, Massachusits, told NPR (National Public Radio in the US) that the virus is not that easily transmitted.

He recalled the case of a Gabon man who had clear symptoms of Ebola and who boarded a plane to Johannesburg to seek medical treatment in 1996. He had a fever above 41 degrees C and signs of internal bleeding. 

The man reached the hospital where he was treated and he didn't infect anyone during his flight or other travels, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported, although other reports - that cannot yet be verified - state that he infected a nurse at the hospital and she died of the disease.

Whether the virus spreads rapidly depends on how many people are infected (1 201 cases reported during current outbreak) and the degree of travel from the outbreak area. 

The current Ebola outbreak

The current outbreak is the deadliest ever on record, and is currently not under control.

One of the leading doctors battling the disease in Liberia died on Sunday after contracting the disease earlier in the week.

Ebola kills up to 90% of those it infects, this rate is especially high in countries with poor healthcare and a populace unwilling to receive treatment, as is the case in the aforementioned African nations.

Aside from its lethality, Ebola is also highly, highly contagious. The disease has an incubation period of up to 21 days and takes between 1 and 2 weeks to kill sufferers once symptoms begin to manifest themselves. There is currently no cure for the illness.

How is Ebola transmitted?

Ebola is spread by coming into contact with the bodily fluids of infected animals or individuals, or people who died from the disease. This includes sweat, blood and saliva.

The infectious potential of the disease is such that coming into contact with a single drop of sweat or spit from an infected person - and then transmitting the virus to your nose or mouth when you touch these organs - could cause a completely healthy to become infected. 

It is also often transmitted to medical personnel via hypodermic needles used in treating patients with Ebola fever, and to lab personnel who handle samples. 

There are several strains of Ebola. Genome sampling of infected patients has suggested that the current outbreak is due to the Zaire strain, which is the deadliest strain known to man.

The disease can also be caught from infected animals. According to the WHO, animals that may carry the illness include Gorillas, monkeys, fruit bats and porcupines. Infected fruit bats in particular have been known to travel as far as New Zealand and do not show any symptoms of the disease.

Compounding this problem is the fact that Ebola is a haemorrhagic virus, meaning that it causes large amounts of bleeding in infected individuals. Combined with the fact that fever causes sufferers to sweat profusely one can see how the transmission vector of the illness is, in a sense, self-propogating.

The ease of transmission is the reason why so many medical professionals succumb to the illness when treating it. In addition to the death of Dr. Samuel Brisbane in Liberia, the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health also announced that its leading physician, Sheikh Umar Khan is also battling the disease. 

Nurses have abandoned hospitals with confirmed cases of the disease after several died as a result of treating infected people. Doctors treating the illnesses now wear positive-pressure suits to similar to those worn by those dealing with toxic chemicals. 

The largest concern is the spread of the disease to other countries. Infectious disease specialist Kamran Khan with St Michael's Hospital in Toronto told NPR that if the disease spreads, Paris would most likely be at risk because most international flights from Conakry, the city affected most by the Ebola outbreak in Guinea and home to about 1 million people, leave for Paris. 

A statement by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases read thus

"While the risk of introduction of Ebola virus into South Africa is considered low, we strongly recommend that surveillance for viral haemorrhagic fevers (and at present, particularly EVD), be strengthened. This should be done primarily through Port Health services, but it is also extremely important that public and private practitioners are on the alert for any ill persons that have travelled to viral haemorrhagic fever risk areas. There needs to be a high index of suspicion for EVD in health workers from the affected region with unexplained fever."

Surveillance entails monitoring travellers for signs of illness, such as a high temperature or sweating. However, in its early phases, Ebola is often mistaken for other viruses including malaria and influenza.

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