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11 June 2010

Predictions and possibilities

As soccer fever grips the country, Dr Ross Tucker, FitnessDoc looks at what the fan actually cares about - the result. Here are his predictions.

As soccer fever grips the country, Dr Ross Tucker, FitnessDoc looks at what the fan actually cares about - the result. 

I'm biased, and so my enjoyment in sport comes in part from uncovering the 'hidden side' and actually seeking to understand why things happen but for most, the team, the passion and the result is what drives sport.

And of course, everyone has an opinion.  And I'd love to hear yours.  Do you think that Brazil's omission of Ronaldinho hurts their chances?  Do the Ivory Coast and Germany have a chance without Drogba and Ballack?  All feelings are welcome.

But, in the interests of analysis, let's have a look at how one might predict the results more 'objectively'.  And for this, we turn to one of FIFA's sponsors, Castrol.
 


Below is a graph of what Castrol's probability calculator throws up as the tournament draw and results from the second round onward (click to enlarge).  You can see if their analysis gives your team a chance.
 

 
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