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More than 25 million Africans have already been infected with HIV, the virus that causes Aids. UNAIDS estimated that nearly US$200 billion is needed to save 16 million people from death and 43 million people from becoming infected, but donors have pledged nowhere near that amount.

In its report "Aids in Africa," the UN agency examines three potential scenarios for the continent in the next 20 years depending on the international community's contribution to fighting the epidemic.

67 million likely to die
Researchers determined that even with massive funding and better treatment, the number of Africans who are going to die from the virus is likely to top 67 million.

"What we do today will change the future," concluded the report, drawn up by some of the world's leading experts on HIV and Aids. "These scenarios demonstrate that, while societies will have to deal with Aids for some time to come, the extent of the epidemic's impact will depend on the responses and investment now."

The three scenarios include a best-case situation, a middle-case and a doomsday scenario. They all warn that the worst of the epidemic's impact is still to come.

"There is no single policy prescription that will change the outcome of the epidemic," the report stated. "The death toll will continue to rise no matter what is done."

Fourfold increase in death toll
Under the worst-case scenario, experts have plotted current policies and funding over the next two decades.

"It offers a disturbing window on the future death toll across the continent, with the cumulative number of people dying from Aids increasing more than fourfold," it says. "The number of children orphaned by the epidemic will continue to rise beyond 2025."

Aids already has a devastating impact on the continent.

UNAIDS has reported that life expectancy in nine countries has dropped to below 40 because of the disease. There are 11 million orphans, while 6 500 people are dying each day. In 2004 3,1 million people were newly infected, the agency said.

Insufficient political will
"If by 2025 millions of African people are still becoming infected with HIV each year, these scenarios suggest that it will not be because there was no choice," the report said. "It will be because, collectively, there was insufficient political will to change behaviour at all levels from the institution, to the community, to the individual and halt the forces driving the Aids epidemic in Africa."

Hundreds of experts and people living with the virus helped draw up the report. – (Sapa-AP)
 

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