The well known Nurses Health Study showed that there is a slightly increased incidence of breast cancer in women on HRT compared to women who are not on HRT. Although this was only a small increase, it was statistically significant.
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However, women on HRT generally develop lower grade, less aggressive breast cancer and have better survival chances. This, at least in part, is probably due to the fact that women on HRT are monitored more closely and the cancer, if it is developing, is detected earlier.
The possible development of breast cancer is linked to the duration of use, and albeit to a lesser degree, to dosage. The risk only increases after five years of usage.
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