We are five days into the Beijing Olympic Games and the South African team has been humbled by standards that have progressed well beyond what might have been expected.
Our 4 x 100m freestyle relay men, triumphant in Athens in 2004, actually swam faster than they did to win gold back then, but were beaten by more than four seconds - and by six other teams.
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Our medal prospects have failed to advance to finals, finishing outside the top 8 in their semi-finals, and questions are beginning to be asked: "What is wrong with SA sport?"
Unfortunately, the situation not going to improve in the next week.
Best-case scenario still dismal
South Africa’s swimming team is facing the very real prospect of not winning a single medal in Beijing, unless the 4 x 100m medley relay team can pull off a surprise.
On current form, and given the US, Australian and French performances so far, they have at best an outside chance. This is true also for South Africa’s track hopefuls, despite many people’s belief that South Africa sent its strongest squad ever to the Games.
The next 10 days of competition might prove to be a watershed for SA sport, the very real possibility now emerging that we return without a single medal, of any colour. Even a best-case scenario, or an optimist, would struggle to find more than three medals (none gold, mind you) in the next 10 days.
So is SA sport broken?
Questions are going to be asked in the coming weeks. Perhaps these Olympic Games will be a 'break point' moment, a turning point in SA sport. But to begin with, we must ask the question: "Are we investing enough money into SA sport?"
Quite how that money should be invested is another debate, but for now, let’s look at the price of Olympic success.
How much is an Olympic gold medal worth?
I guess that depends who is answering the question. For an athlete, it's a lifetime of achievement, or perhaps endorsement deals worth millions, a lifetime of fame and contentment.
If you're a government like that of China, then every gold medal represents your "statement" of superiority to the world.
But can the achievement of medals be quantified financially? Can a direct line be drawn between spending and an Olympic medal? It turns out that yes, it can in fact be done in some cases.
The graph below shows the number of medals won by Australia at the Olympic Games between 1980 and 1996, with a projection on the number of medals that would be won in 2000.
The x-axis is the money spent in each four-year cycle leading up to the Games. This analysis was presented at an IOC Congress in the months leading up to the Sydney Games of 2000.
What you will see immediately is a nice, linear relationship between the number of medals won and the money spent during a four-year cycle between Olympic Games.
The bronze medals lie on a slightly different 'line' to that of the gold and silver, but it's possible to work out, using the slope of the line, the approximate cost per medal.
It turns out that each bronze medal will set you back a cool Aus $15 million, while gold and silver will cost you about Aus $40 million!
Money invested=medals won?
Obviously, that price is "context-specific", and depends on the nation and how that money is spent. Money can be wasted, or it can be invested wisely, and the return on spending depends on the system in which the money is spent. So this cost is the Australian price.
In Cuba, for example, Olympic medals cost a lot less, and if you reshuffle the Olympic medal table, then Cuba tends to win the most medals per dollar (though this is expressed per $ GDP).
Other countries that win cheaper Olympic medals include the Eastern Bloc nations, like Hungary, Bulgaria, Belarus. For the US, it's almost impossible to quantify the cost, because there is no state-controlled spending on sport development during the four-year cycle - the system is "privatised".
But the point is, there is a relationship between money invested and medals won. If you want 20 gold medals, then spend Aus $800 million every four years.
Will China have hometown advantage?
The graph above was used to project how many medals Australia would win in Sydney - the dashed line in the graph. It turns out it was pretty accurate, because as hosts, Australia won 16 gold, 25 silver and 17 bronze medals, for a total of 63 medals (projection was 14 gold, 14 silver and 35 bronze, a total of 58 medals). They exceeded themselves by winning more silvers than anticipated - home-town advantage perhaps?
What does this information mean? Well, it means that China, which has spared no expense in its quest to be the dominant nation of the Olympics, is set for great things, not just in Beijing, but beyond.
Anyone who saw the opening ceremony will recognise the investment by China into a vision of superiority and dominance. The country reportedly had between 20 000 and 50 000 athletes in elite training camps leading up to the Beijing Games.
The cost associated with running these facilities, providing coaches and medical / scientific support is enormous. Yet it's been done, in the name of "super-power" status. China will therefore be able to produce a graph much the same as the one above, and it will be interesting to see just how the rest of the world responds to the onslaught by a nation of a billion people throwing massive money into sport.
You get what you pay for
As for my country, South Africa... well, let's just say that we would probably not even make it onto the graph above, both in terms of spending and medals won!
I doubt whether we spend enough to win even one single medal in the Australian model. However, we do have a back-up plan, which sees our best swimmers leave South Africa to go to the US and train there. That is our best shot for a medal.
It is a sad state of affairs that in order to achieve success in SA sport, your best chance is to leave the country. But that is the reality. And for the simple reason that we fail to invest, either in people or financially, I would pick that we'll win two medals in Beijing.
You get what you pay for, even when it comes to Olympic medals...
(Health24's FitnessDoc, Dr Ross Tucker, August 2008. Dr Tucker also blogs on www.sportsscientists.com)
Very informative article! Well done, great read. Actually scary that a graph like this (done 8 years ago) are so accurate. No wonder we are not performing, the government is not spending enough. And then they send our athletes, the cream of the crop, to Beijing with inferior clothes. Wow, what a boost for their morale... - Henk
mind not right
2008/08/13 04:48:54 PM
as much as I agree that not a lot is being done to train & invest money in our athletes I also think that it is a mindset. when a foreigner fails to collect a medal, they are visibly upset. A South African will say, " Oh well, not too bad, I finished 4th & broke my personal best time." It is almost as we resign ourselves to the fact that we are not so good. - Werner
Sport, or Politics?
2008/08/13 05:05:48 PM
Until SA decides to support and develop our top athletes, regardless of their race, we are wasting our time. Cricket (world cups) and Rugby (post winning the world cup) have made the same mistakes - as has netball and hockey before. Are we to serve the needs of ANC orientated administrators, or the needs of a nation of sports lovers to succeed? Whilst social principles of reform, as opposed to developing the best we have, dominates - let' s stop asking questions about performances... - T-R
Sport
2008/08/13 05:11:50 PM
The money is well spent, The country morale is boosted, the amount of money earned from spin offs outways the expenses, Unfortunately, If our politicians cant find a way to enrich themselves , they will not do it, and then Blame the Previous regime. - Snowbro
Asia
2008/08/13 05:15:19 PM
In the past the west , and europe, won all the Medals, Asia, like there economy took a stand and decided to improve, Now look at China, Korea, Japan, look at them whipping Europe, and the west, And AFRICA, Going backwards, Just waiting for the hand out, and blaming every one else. - patriot
Prioritise
2008/08/13 05:30:54 PM
The example of Australia was used yet there are many countries with inverse relations between money spent and medals brought back. There are more serious problems in SA than a lack of medals at a sporting event. I agree that we need to prioritise on social needs, rather than ‘ luxury’ sport events. - Briekstreep
Inverse relation
2008/08/13 07:10:42 PM
To Briekstreep
Name one country with an inverse relationship - that implies that the more they spend, the fewer medals they win. If that exists, I' d be very surprised. That said, i agree with you - the article did not say we should copy Australia, only made a point. There are ways for SA to be more competitive without throwing away money.
Ross - Ross
What about Zim
2008/08/13 07:32:40 PM
The ironic flaw i your argument is Zimbabwe, currently sitting at 23rd on the medals table, with 3 silver medals. I doubt that their olympic success is related to investment in sport. - Brad
olympic bid
2008/08/13 09:19:16 PM
Ironically, spending will increase when Cape Town, South Africa bids for the 2020 Olympic Games. We' ll see the rush to get facilties up to top standards and get a team ready to perform. - capeguy
Olympic Record
2008/08/13 09:37:07 PM
Yes, unfortunately we will break a world record soon - NO MEDALS whatsoever. Very proud moment in SA' s history or will this be the fault of the previous government again. I wonder......... - Anita Vermeulen
ZIM
2008/08/14 03:15:00 AM
Brad, Kirsty Coventry, Who lives and Train' s, In USA got all 3 Medals for Zim, She is a fantastic Swimmer, and unlucky not to have got Gold. And Zim is lucky she doesnt swim for USA, SA, OR GB - Patriot
Olympics
2008/08/14 04:22:56 AM
What can you really expect from the SA athletes when they get no help from anyone. As soon as politics gets involved in sports you have no hope. Until SA sports start to spend money on improving training facilities and helping their athletes there are not going to be many medals coming their way.
- Natalie
rugby culture yuck
2008/08/14 08:10:16 AM
as long as we have this crazy ' rugby is everything' culture among whites, we will never do well at the Olympics. same with soccer for black south africans.
our sports interest is way too narrowminded and sportspecific to encourage youngsters to choose a different game, or get the average South African enthusiastic about supporting and watching it. - Louise
SA Sport(s) - a sick system
2008/08/14 08:17:50 AM
Not enough facilities/ exposure/opportunities at school level and a lot of talented youngsters slip through into drugabuse and wasting away on pavements. Pushing selected candidates who were lucky to get into the sports instead of picking the really talented ones , having an attitude towards trainers and failing to train properly. Discipline, discipline, discipline, a hunger to compete, but most of all not enough exposure at school level. All sport not rugby,cricket,soccer should be compul. - Sportfan
Not so sure
2008/08/14 09:00:55 AM
I promise you that after the track and field events there will be a substantial amount of medals from the rest of Africa and there is no way that some of those central african countries spend a lot of money on their athletes. - Joe
No Politics please
2008/08/14 10:14:48 AM
The fact of the matter is that we will come back with no medal, and that will be a great achievement for the pessimistic country like ours. A pessimist is never dissapointed. Failure of SA Sport has nothing to do with the ANC, but Administrators who have been failing to apply models that work towards building the winning nation. Besides, other countries have improved too. - Twoboy
Early age
2008/08/14 11:52:32 AM
Without exposure to the various sporting disciplines in schools from early ages, i.e weightlifting,wrestling etc our South African youth will never know or develop in these different disciplines. Nor are there any facilities or financial support for training. In the old communist countries talents were identified and nurtured from an early age, govt sponsored all training and education. Maybe schools should be exposed to the various disciplines with financial help from our new BEE billionaires. - -Trish
Over training
2008/08/14 03:15:22 PM
I do believe that all our athletes including the rugby players are over training. More is not always beter - Shaun
funding seems to be Africa' s biggest obstacle
2008/08/14 05:08:19 PM
namibia with a population of less that 2 million people has since 1992 Olympics brought home 4 silver medals thanks to frank Fredericks. he trained his whole life in the USA. Our team of 10 athletes this year might also not bring any medals home. our hope is the boxer Japhet Uutoni who got gold in Commonwealth games last year as well as in Algeria this year. Agnes Samaria our 800 m and 1500 specialist wont make it!! she is already 35. same problem at home no or limited funding for NAM athletes. - herbert
It is possible
2008/08/15 05:38:46 AM
We have a lot of talent in our country. Look at school sport and see to what great lengths teachers will go for rugby. No wonder our athletes disappear. Whilst still training for athletics they have to start with rugby training as that is the priority for the school and otherwise no recognition. Swimmers get nothing for their achievements. We have facilities, coaches and talent. We need money and support on a broader base. If rugby and cricket can do it.. Currently it is BO Blink en Onder Stink - mariette
medals
2008/08/15 01:05:23 PM
So... reality at last kicks in!!!! We are not the sport mad country we all think we are. Firstly. seats at sports venues are never full,unless it is a derby between kaizer Chiefs and Orlando Pirates, or a rugbytest between S.A and the All Blacks!!! 40 to 80%empty seats are the norm ar run of the mill games.no way to get interest from a youngster that needs to be there to start having an interest. Instead they sit with their father' s who switches off the TV when things go wrong. TEACH THEM EARLY! - Andre Fourie
Olympic Medals
2008/08/15 05:16:58 PM
It seems the bulk of sports funds in this country go to sports administrators, rather than focussing on the sport talent. How many " passengers" had paid-up trips to Beijing, I wonder ? - Mich
SA @ the olympics
2008/08/21 02:01:05 PM
DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT ! SASCOC should put money into development..plain and simple. - Sid Reddy
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