The Comrades marathon is only a few months away, and with this year's cut-off time extended to 12 hours instead of the usual 11, many runners who would otherwise have watched from the sidelines will now try to complete the agonising 90km race.
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But runners hoping that the extra hour will be enough to help them complete the race in time, may have a nasty shock waiting for them.
Encouraging race participation Running events in South Africa have slowly been losing ground to cycling and walking, which are perceived as easier to succeed in.
Fewer runners are taking part in ultra marathons than a decade ago, and the Comrades organisers' decision to extend the race cut-off time follows the success of the 2000 Comrades, when the time was extended to enable as many runners as possible to participate in the 75th Anniversary race.
The 2000 race attracted over 24 500 competitors and the ripple effect of increased fields and interest in road running reverberated throughout the sport countrywide.
But will the extra hour really increase the accessibility of the race and allow more runners to finish?
High finishing rate failure According to a Runner's World article by UCT Physiology lecturer and two-times Comrades winner Dr Lindsay Weight, the extra hour in 2000 increased the number of entries, but didn't guarantee a successful finish.
There were 4 000 disappointed runners who did not make the cut-off time – a failure rate of 16.4% of the field, Weight says.
In 2001, the failure rate reached an all time high of 22%, and 2002 was not much better despite reverting to stricter qualifying times.
Widening the scope for failure Weight analysed the 2002 race data to find out why the increasing time frame may not necessarily allow many more people to finish.
Studying a sample of 1 850 runners from across South Africa and internationally, Weight found that the majority of those who finished in the last half hour, went past the halfway point at Drummond in under five hours.
Over 300 runners in the sample did not finish in time, 262 of which reached Drummond. Of these, 72 reached the end but outside of the time limit.
According to Weight, these are the runners that would benefit from the extended cut-off time.
Most runners who made it past Drummond in five hours were running at a pace of at least half a minute slower per kilometre (6:50/km) than their marathon qualifying pace. But relatively few seemed able to sustain this pace, for there was a dramatic decline after 45km to around 8min/km.
Increasing the qualifying time to five hours and the halfway cut-off to six merely widens the scope for exactly the same outcome, Weight says.
Training, not time, makes the difference Weight says that the problem does not lie with the traditional 11-hour cut-off, but with the attitudes and strategies of the runners.
Those runners who do not finish in time either walk for too long or run on legs inadequately prepared for the distance.
The Comrades was never meant to be easy, but it is not impossible. Planning ahead and training hard will make more of a difference in achieving a medal than an extra hour.
Visit Health24's new-look fitness centre for the latest news and fitness programmes and advice on how to exercise effectively. – (Health24)
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