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Ebola could soon reach SA's neighbours

With the Ebola virus having killed almost 3 000 people in west Africa, researchers are scrambling to identify where the disease will head next. Early identification can help probable locations to prepare themselves and hopefully mitigate the impact the virus has once it does arrive.

The task is more complicated than it sounds. Central and west Africa are largely rural areas with underdeveloped infrastructure and a severe lack of data regarding the inhabitants and their activities. This makes it difficult to generate an accurate picture of the situation in the region from which to build predictions on. 

In a world-first, the researchers developed a model based not on the people of this region, but instead on the animal population of this vast area. The reasoning for this is that is believed that certain animals are the primary carriers of Ebola, and are more responsible for it's spread between countries than people are.

Read: This is the worst outbreak of Ebola ever

In particular several varieties of fruit bat are believed to transport Ebola large distances as they are immune to the virus. These bats are commonly eaten by those living in rural areas which is how the disease spreads to people.

Using this data, the scientists determined 15 countries and 22 million people at immediate risk of an Ebola outbreak. These countries include Angola, Ethiopia and the island of Madagascar. Also at risk is Mozambique, which borders the north-east of South Africa.

The Washington Post combined the study's findings into a map, which you can see below. The mao highlights just how large an area is at risk. 



The concern is that this could cause a snowball effect, with every area that is infected opening up the potential for the virus to spread further. This comes as the WHO warns that the number of cases, which currently stands at 4 846, could double every three weeks.

Given that the death rate of the illness can reach as high as 90%, the potential carnage caused by such a spread is almost unprecedented in recent decades.

Read more:
Ebola travels by plane to Nigeria 
The signs and symptoms of Ebola
Will Ebola hit SA?
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