HIV/Aids

27 October 2008

Aids deaths to peak in 5 years

The number of deaths arising from HIV and Aids is expected to peak in the next five years, the World Health Organisation has said, as it sharply cut an earlier mortality forecast.

0
The number of deaths arising from HIV and Aids is expected to peak in the next five years, the World Health Organisation has said, as it sharply cut an earlier mortality forecast.

"Deaths (from HIV and Aids) will continue to increase somewhat for a few years... by 2030 they would have declined from current levels today," said Colin Mathers, WHO coordinator for epidemiology and the burden of disease.

The latest forecast expects deaths to rise from 2.2 million in 2008 to a maximum of 2.4 million in 2012, before declining to 1.2 million in 2030.

In an earlier projection, WHO said deaths from HIV and Aids would rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030, assuming that anti-retroviral drugs reached 80% of the population by 2012.

But following sharp estimate reductions by the United Nations last year on the number of people with Aids, WHO said it was also slashing its mortality forecast.

The organisation made its latest forecast in its new Global Burden of Disease publication, which compiles statistics on the causes of mortality. The latest publication examined 2004 statistics and found that cardiovascular disease, infectious and parasitic diseases and cancer are the three leading causes of deaths worldwide. – (Sapa, October 2008)

Read more:
2 million children HIV-positive
Top killers for next 20 years

 

Read Health24’s Comments Policy

Comment on this story
0 comments
Comments have been closed for this article.

Ask the Expert

HIV/Aids expert

Dr Sindisiwe van Zyl qualified at the University of Pretoria in 2005. She is a patients' rights activist and loves using social media to teach about HIV. She is in private practice in Johannesburg.

Still have a question?

Get free advice from our panel of experts

The information provided does not constitute a diagnosis of your condition. You should consult a medical practitioner or other appropriate health care professional for a physical exmanication, diagnosis and formal advice. Health24 and the expert accept no responsibility or liability for any damage or personal harm you may suffer resulting from making use of this content.

* You must accept our condition

Forum Rules