The number of deaths arising from HIV and Aids is expected to peak in the next five years, the World Health Organisation has said, as
it sharply cut an earlier mortality forecast.
"Deaths (from HIV and Aids) will continue to increase somewhat for
a few years... by 2030 they would have declined from current levels
today," said Colin Mathers, WHO coordinator for epidemiology and the
burden of disease.
The latest forecast expects deaths to rise from 2.2 million in 2008
to a maximum of 2.4 million in 2012, before declining to 1.2 million
In an earlier projection, WHO said deaths from HIV and Aids would
rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030, assuming that
anti-retroviral drugs reached 80% of the population by 2012.
But following sharp estimate reductions by the United Nations last
year on the number of people with Aids, WHO said it was also slashing
its mortality forecast.
The organisation made its latest forecast in its new Global Burden
of Disease publication, which compiles statistics on the causes of
mortality. The latest publication examined 2004 statistics and found that
cardiovascular disease, infectious and parasitic diseases and cancer
are the three leading causes of deaths worldwide. – (Sapa, October 2008)
2 million children HIV-positive
Top killers for next 20 years