If the H5N1 bird flu virus mutates and spreads easily from human to human (as is evident from events in Indonesia) and is as deadly as the 1918 flu virus it could lead to the following scenario:
BY GREG CALLIGARO for YOU Pulse magazine
THE 1918 FLU | TODAY | |
YEAR | 1918 | 2008 |
Global population | 1,8 billion | 6,5 billion |
Chief means of transport | Troopships, trains | Aircraft |
Time it takes the virus to reach all parts of the globe | Four months | Four days |
Protective and preventive measures | Masks and antiseptic | Flu vaccines |
Treatment | Bed rest, aspirin | Antivirals such as Relenza and Tamiflu |
Estimated mortalities | 25 million-50 million | 100 million if the new virus is potent and the antivirals not as effective as scientists hope |
(This is an edited version of a story that originally appeared in YOU Pulse / Huisgenoot-POLS magazine, Autumn 2008. Buy the latest copy, on newsstands now, for more fascinating stories from the world of health and wellness.)